Winless In Seattle
Steve Sauro
Elliott SmithPlayoffs Week 2
January 13th 2012 22:28
:
Same Three, Different Picks
New Orleans @ San Fran
Elliott: Drew Brees is on fire. Yes. Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. Yes. But do you know what the record of playoff teams who are coming off of a 1st round bye? They're like 120-40 (I honestly have no idea, I just know they win like 75% of the time). So even though they're at home, the Niners are underdogs. I say that pisses them off and they show up to play. Remember, they had one of the top defenses this year. Look for them to give Brees fits.
Niners 22-20
Winless: How'd the Saints do on West coast in the playoffs last year? Wasn't there some sort of earthquake? I know I preached about taking home teams in the playoffs, but... I'm not so sure here. Yes, SF's defense is solid - but All World Patrick Willis still has that tweaked hammy - Darren Sproles is tough to catch as is... Plus, "well, Drew Brees". As long as there's no earthquake in SF - Sanits march to the W.
The Cuz: I slept on SF all season and wrote off nearly every one of their wins. To beat SF, you need a stout D that will punch you in the mouth (see Ravens v. Niners a while back). I don't see that in NO's defense. I just don't. So can I trust Brees and company to outscore the Niners? It's real close, but my gut (that went 1-3 last week) says New Orleans wins, so I'm taking San Fran behind a strong defensive effort. Come on Alex Smith, don't fail me now. (Ed note: Before this season, that last sentence had never been written before. This actually might be the first time this season.)
Tebow @ New England
Elliott: I am so pissed I didn't take the Broncos last weekend. I thought they had a chance, I bet on them (and the over!), but I didn't take them in the column. Of course Winless did take them, since he enjoys besting my record every week, but please know I wanted to. Regardless of how you feel about Tebow, I don't see how anyone roots for New England this game. When someone tells me they are a Patriots fan, I give them the same look I give someone that tells me they find Kate Winslet attractive. Utter disgust and confusion. As great as it would be to see Tebow knocking off Brady the week after knocking out Big Ben, I'm picking against Tebow. Again. Pats 35-19
Winless: Everyone and their mother knows Tebow has God on his side. Everyone and their mother knows Brady has the refs on his side (see 'tuck rule'; see 'Brady rule'; ask any defensive player who touches him). Something has to give. Tebow put up 316 against the #1 PIT defense... NE's defense is horrible. I just don't see DEN winning outright two weeks in a row while being double digit underdogs. Has more to do with Brian Dawkins being out and NE having the 2 best TEs in the league than anything. Patriots roll.
The Cuz: Let me give you a rundown of Denver's win last weekend. Pittburgh was missing parts of their O line, starting RB, QB was hobbled and they still put up points against what was supposed to be a pretty good Broncos D. The other side of the ball was where Pittsburgh lost this game. If recollection serves (I'm too lazy to research right now), the Steelers (Ed note: You mean Stealers) were missing their ENTIRE starting D line by the end of the 1st quarter. In order to compensate for it, they brought up the safeties and tried to stuff the run. Bad call. Tebow goes Elway on them and launches long-range missiles to WR's that had the middle of the field to themselves. Game over. Give that win to the Injury Bug and a rare lapse in judgment by D Coordinator Dick LeBeau.
Fast forward to this weekend. NE's defense is not as talented, but also not nearly as depleted as Pittsburgh's was. They may actually respect Jesus' ability to throw the deep ball and open the field up some for a Denver running attack. Hell, Denver might even score often on New England. HOWEVER, Denver just hasn't got the defensive capabilities to stop Brady (and the refs) from marching all over them. Guessing the line on this game is in the 60's at least and it'll need to be. Patriots lay tread on the Broncos and win by 14 .
Houston @ Baltimore
Elliott: Baltimore has to win this game. Has to. They've worked hard all season, beat the Stealers twice, won their division and earned the first round bye. They've overcome the roller coaster ride that is Joe Flacco (remember the Jacksonville game?) and still put their foot down in must win games. I don't see any way the Ravens come out flat this game. They have had one goal in mind all season and I see them winning the first step towards the Super Bowl. Still, it would be fun to watch Houston win so they could sign Y.A Tittle and James Van Der Beek to play QB in the championship.
Bal 28-17
Winless: The Ravens are going to win this game. I really don't need to break it down much more than that, but... I really think if this game was at HOU it would be a different story. Too bad for Houston, I mean it's not like they got an automatic bid into the playoffs because the Colts were missing anyone and wanted to get, um... Luck"y". Bad jokes aside -Ravens take this game pretty easily.
The Cuz: I concur with Jesse. Not a game to get excited about on paper. Baltimore has a better D than Cinci, with DB's and Safeties that WILL catch errant passes thrown by Keanu Reeves. Houston, it was good to see you finally make the playoffs. Now go rest up and we'll see you next season. Baltimore by 10.
New York @ Green Bay
Elliott: Don't buy into the Giants. Last week had as much to do with Matt Ryan's inability to play in big games than anything else. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is dying to play that secondary. Trust me.
GB 42-22
Winless: Up until about 3 days ago, I'd have had no trouble taking GB in a no-brainer here. Now, honestly, I'm not so sure. Call it a hunch, or call it me being an idiot (hey, I'm playing with house money now, and still Tebowing randomly), but I now like the Giants in this game. I just don't see Ryan Grant or James Starks taking over this game - and I actually like the Giants WRs better than I do GB's, so if it goes into shoot-out mode... I also don't think enough can be said as to how much off field activity weighs in on the Pack - Finley's a FA, Flynn rumors and speculation, the death of a coach's son... Packers have a tough offseason ahead of them. It starts after this week, Giants get the W.
The Cuz: Q- How do you sack a guy that gets the ball out of his hands in under 2 seconds?
A- You blitz him and pray your DB's can cover their wide outs. Q- Can the Giants do that all game and be successful?
A- AND be successful? Only if they knock Rodgers out cold and hope Flynn doesn't do to them what he did to Detroit.
Q- Will Flynn get the franchise tag this offseason?
A- If he plays one snap in this game, yes. Sorry Hawks fans, I think we're stuck with TJax for another season. (Ed note: It's ok, we'll trade nine draft picks for Tebow ten years from now)
Q- Quit fooling around, who wins this game?
A- GB shows the Falcons how to terrorize a secondary. Pack wins by 7 .
..
Elliott: Drew Brees is on fire. Yes. Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. Yes. But do you know what the record of playoff teams who are coming off of a 1st round bye? They're like 120-40 (I honestly have no idea, I just know they win like 75% of the time). So even though they're at home, the Niners are underdogs. I say that pisses them off and they show up to play. Remember, they had one of the top defenses this year. Look for them to give Brees fits.
Niners 22-20
Winless: How'd the Saints do on West coast in the playoffs last year? Wasn't there some sort of earthquake? I know I preached about taking home teams in the playoffs, but... I'm not so sure here. Yes, SF's defense is solid - but All World Patrick Willis still has that tweaked hammy - Darren Sproles is tough to catch as is... Plus, "well, Drew Brees". As long as there's no earthquake in SF - Sanits march to the W.
The Cuz: I slept on SF all season and wrote off nearly every one of their wins. To beat SF, you need a stout D that will punch you in the mouth (see Ravens v. Niners a while back). I don't see that in NO's defense. I just don't. So can I trust Brees and company to outscore the Niners? It's real close, but my gut (that went 1-3 last week) says New Orleans wins, so I'm taking San Fran behind a strong defensive effort. Come on Alex Smith, don't fail me now. (Ed note: Before this season, that last sentence had never been written before. This actually might be the first time this season.)
Tebow @ New England
Elliott: I am so pissed I didn't take the Broncos last weekend. I thought they had a chance, I bet on them (and the over!), but I didn't take them in the column. Of course Winless did take them, since he enjoys besting my record every week, but please know I wanted to. Regardless of how you feel about Tebow, I don't see how anyone roots for New England this game. When someone tells me they are a Patriots fan, I give them the same look I give someone that tells me they find Kate Winslet attractive. Utter disgust and confusion. As great as it would be to see Tebow knocking off Brady the week after knocking out Big Ben, I'm picking against Tebow. Again. Pats 35-19
Winless: Everyone and their mother knows Tebow has God on his side. Everyone and their mother knows Brady has the refs on his side (see 'tuck rule'; see 'Brady rule'; ask any defensive player who touches him). Something has to give. Tebow put up 316 against the #1 PIT defense... NE's defense is horrible. I just don't see DEN winning outright two weeks in a row while being double digit underdogs. Has more to do with Brian Dawkins being out and NE having the 2 best TEs in the league than anything. Patriots roll.
The Cuz: Let me give you a rundown of Denver's win last weekend. Pittburgh was missing parts of their O line, starting RB, QB was hobbled and they still put up points against what was supposed to be a pretty good Broncos D. The other side of the ball was where Pittsburgh lost this game. If recollection serves (I'm too lazy to research right now), the Steelers (Ed note: You mean Stealers) were missing their ENTIRE starting D line by the end of the 1st quarter. In order to compensate for it, they brought up the safeties and tried to stuff the run. Bad call. Tebow goes Elway on them and launches long-range missiles to WR's that had the middle of the field to themselves. Game over. Give that win to the Injury Bug and a rare lapse in judgment by D Coordinator Dick LeBeau.
Fast forward to this weekend. NE's defense is not as talented, but also not nearly as depleted as Pittsburgh's was. They may actually respect Jesus' ability to throw the deep ball and open the field up some for a Denver running attack. Hell, Denver might even score often on New England. HOWEVER, Denver just hasn't got the defensive capabilities to stop Brady (and the refs) from marching all over them. Guessing the line on this game is in the 60's at least and it'll need to be. Patriots lay tread on the Broncos and win by 14 .
Houston @ Baltimore
Elliott: Baltimore has to win this game. Has to. They've worked hard all season, beat the Stealers twice, won their division and earned the first round bye. They've overcome the roller coaster ride that is Joe Flacco (remember the Jacksonville game?) and still put their foot down in must win games. I don't see any way the Ravens come out flat this game. They have had one goal in mind all season and I see them winning the first step towards the Super Bowl. Still, it would be fun to watch Houston win so they could sign Y.A Tittle and James Van Der Beek to play QB in the championship.
Bal 28-17
Winless: The Ravens are going to win this game. I really don't need to break it down much more than that, but... I really think if this game was at HOU it would be a different story. Too bad for Houston, I mean it's not like they got an automatic bid into the playoffs because the Colts were missing anyone and wanted to get, um... Luck"y". Bad jokes aside -Ravens take this game pretty easily.
The Cuz: I concur with Jesse. Not a game to get excited about on paper. Baltimore has a better D than Cinci, with DB's and Safeties that WILL catch errant passes thrown by Keanu Reeves. Houston, it was good to see you finally make the playoffs. Now go rest up and we'll see you next season. Baltimore by 10.
New York @ Green Bay
Elliott: Don't buy into the Giants. Last week had as much to do with Matt Ryan's inability to play in big games than anything else. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is dying to play that secondary. Trust me.
GB 42-22
Winless: Up until about 3 days ago, I'd have had no trouble taking GB in a no-brainer here. Now, honestly, I'm not so sure. Call it a hunch, or call it me being an idiot (hey, I'm playing with house money now, and still Tebowing randomly), but I now like the Giants in this game. I just don't see Ryan Grant or James Starks taking over this game - and I actually like the Giants WRs better than I do GB's, so if it goes into shoot-out mode... I also don't think enough can be said as to how much off field activity weighs in on the Pack - Finley's a FA, Flynn rumors and speculation, the death of a coach's son... Packers have a tough offseason ahead of them. It starts after this week, Giants get the W.
The Cuz: Q- How do you sack a guy that gets the ball out of his hands in under 2 seconds?
A- You blitz him and pray your DB's can cover their wide outs. Q- Can the Giants do that all game and be successful?
A- AND be successful? Only if they knock Rodgers out cold and hope Flynn doesn't do to them what he did to Detroit.
Q- Will Flynn get the franchise tag this offseason?
A- If he plays one snap in this game, yes. Sorry Hawks fans, I think we're stuck with TJax for another season. (Ed note: It's ok, we'll trade nine draft picks for Tebow ten years from now)
Q- Quit fooling around, who wins this game?
A- GB shows the Falcons how to terrorize a secondary. Pack wins by 7 .
..
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