Winless In Seattle
Steve Sauro
Elliott Smith2011 Over/Unders for your Seattle Mariners
April 1st 2011 06:20
:
Game on!
Life is good. Life is very good right now. As I sit here typing at 10PM on a Thursday it's still roughly 80 degrees outside, I'm going on a backlot tour of Universal Studios tomorrow, and the Mariners start their quest for .500 in roughly 21 hours. Three incredibly attractive females moved in across from my place and one already brought me cupcakes for helping her move a TV. I got to watch Derek Jeter on ESPN (the home of the Yankees) and he looked like he was wearing cement cleats. I haven't seen someone move that slow in the infield since last year when I watched Derek Jeter on ESPN. My buddy Jason just promised me Bad Religion tickets for next month (and all I had to do in return is put him in this article. Also, ladies, he's single), my buddy Juice set up a beach date for us two and a few girls for next week, and did I mention Derek Jeter looks washed up? I kept checking to see if the Yankees had signed Mike Blowers or Russ Davis. So how can life get any better? How about a guest spot from my cousin? We wanted to wager on a couple over/under props for the Mariners and then decided to post it for your enjoyment. Seattle can't be mathematically eliminated for at least a month, so right now, life is good.
1. Number of Mariners that will hit 20 HR this year. Over/Under is 1.5.
The Cuz: I think I'll take the under. No Mariner hit this many last year, and I'm hard pressed to see anyone other than Smoak doing it this year.
Me: That puts me in a tough situation. The compelling thing would be for each of us to take a different side and then argue our case. But the team leader had 15 last year, and that guy was made of glass (Russell Branyan). Heck, we only had 4 guys with 10 homeruns last year, and two aren't even on our team anymore (Branyan and Jose Lopez). I will also take the under. When we are relying on a guy who batted .239 with 5 bombs to be our slugger (Smoak), I think the under is a safe bet.
2. Number of Mariners who will hit .250 or better this year (min 100 AB's). Over/Under is 3.5
The Cuz: I'll take the over. M's had 2 players do it last year (Figgins and Ichiro) with 2 almosts (Sweeney hit .263 in 99 AB's and Jack Wilson hit .249). Decent years by Wilson, Gutierrez, and 1 other bright spot (Ichi's a given) and we've covered this for a win.
Me: My God, this might come down to Jack Wilson? I don't know what's more embarrassing, that Wilson could be the tiebreaker or that you set the over/under at 3.5 for an average of .250. Yikes. I guess I'll also take the over, but only because I like being an optimist. But I'm not going with Wilson. Ichiro, Figgins, Gutierrez and Smoak are the 4 that go over.
3. Number of Mariners pitchers who will throw 150 innings. Over/Under is 3.5
The Cuz: I'll take the over. Felix, Fister, and Vargas made it last year and with the addition of Pineda (who looks like a young, short-arm-throwing CC Sabathia) and perhaps a healthy Bedard makes this pretty doable. Yep, I'm going optimistic and making this prediction- Bedard will throw more innings this year than Brandon League.
Me: Pineda as a young CC? I'll send the clubhouse 10 bucks so they can buy a padlock for the fridge. I'd say Pineda is pushing it. He'll be on a serious pitch count/innings count this season. If Bedard pitches 300 IP this season he would have an average of 100 IP over the last 3 seasons. Regardless, I agree with you again. I think 4 of the 5 find a way to hit the milestone.
4. Number of Mariners pitchers with 10 wins. Over/Under is 2.5
The Cuz: I'll take the over. Felix had 13 last year on his way to a Cy Young, and 2 others had 9 (who cares if one of them was League, wins are wins right?) so this seems plausible if we can string together some offense this year.
Me: I'm going under. We had one guy last year with more than 9 wins and he won the Cy Young award. That seems insane to me. With the giant pile of arms that will be alternating in our bullpen, I don't think anyone sees enough consistent playing time to get 10 out of the bullpen, Pineda is on a strict innings watch and Bedard is Bedard and I doubt he'll get his 10 wins before his final game on May 1. That leaves the top three in the rotation, and that sounds like an under to me.
Where will the M's finish this year in the AL West? Up/Down would have this one at 3.5.
The Cuz: This is about where my optimism comes to a screeching halt, and I'm going to have to place them at the bottom of the heap of what might be one of the toughest divisions in baseball right now. The A's have arms for days and some pretty good, young players to go with it. Pundits put these guys as the dark horse of the division, but I think they'll need more pop and experience before we crown them division champs. I'll put them at 3rd, but wouldn't be surprised to see them battle for a while. The Angels just don't play bad baseball, period. Pencil them in at 2nd or 3rd in the West and wait til their signings next year to see how bad they want another shot at the World Series.
Texas, on the other hand, looks ready to kill it now. They are the definition of mashers and bangers. After tossing Smoak (their best infield prospect last year) for Cliff Lee, they replaced him with a guy who looks like he'll hit 40 dingers this year in Mitch Moreland. They strengthened their defense and lost no offense with the Beltre signing. I know, I know- Beltre long-term deal = blah performance, but hear me out on this one. After re-asserting his ability to sock the ball last year in Boston, he gets to play in a band-box of a park. And, it'll be warm down there from the get go, so don't expect too much moss on that rock at third. If their pitching holds up at all then I have place them at the top of the division again.
That leaves the M's. Pitching appears to be alright, even promising. But, hitting for power looks to be the weak spot again. That will cost us dearly against teams like Texas who can put up runs in hurry. And do we have a catcher? Can we draft a Molina of our own? Younger brother, cousin, sister? Seriously, we need a stick back there that we haven't had since we traded away Veritek for Heathcliff Slocum. Yep, it still stings doesn't it? Overall, I think we're a year and 2 big bats away from having a team that will really compete.
Me: Obviously Texas is the team to beat. And while I agree with you that Oakland and The Los Angeles Angels of Orange County of California of America are both teams that could surprise, I'm taking the Up. It seems that whenever we expect the M's to be horrible, they surprise us a little bit (and, conversely, whenever we think they'll be good they trade for Horacio Ramirez). Everyone expects them to finish last because they have as much of a chance as scoring as an RA on the BYU campus. But we do have the arms, and almost everyone from last year had a career-worst season. If that offense can perform just a little better, and the pitching staff can stay roughly the same, that's a team that can climb out of the cellar. How sad is that? I'm trying to sell you on the Mariners finishing 3rd instead of 4th. Yikes. You know what, I don't care. It's baseball season. I don't care if my main rooting interest is seeing my team not finish last. At least I'm interested again. The dark days between NFL and today are over. Sports are back baby! I'm giddy! Life is good.
1. Number of Mariners that will hit 20 HR this year. Over/Under is 1.5.
The Cuz: I think I'll take the under. No Mariner hit this many last year, and I'm hard pressed to see anyone other than Smoak doing it this year.
Me: That puts me in a tough situation. The compelling thing would be for each of us to take a different side and then argue our case. But the team leader had 15 last year, and that guy was made of glass (Russell Branyan). Heck, we only had 4 guys with 10 homeruns last year, and two aren't even on our team anymore (Branyan and Jose Lopez). I will also take the under. When we are relying on a guy who batted .239 with 5 bombs to be our slugger (Smoak), I think the under is a safe bet.
2. Number of Mariners who will hit .250 or better this year (min 100 AB's). Over/Under is 3.5
The Cuz: I'll take the over. M's had 2 players do it last year (Figgins and Ichiro) with 2 almosts (Sweeney hit .263 in 99 AB's and Jack Wilson hit .249). Decent years by Wilson, Gutierrez, and 1 other bright spot (Ichi's a given) and we've covered this for a win.
Me: My God, this might come down to Jack Wilson? I don't know what's more embarrassing, that Wilson could be the tiebreaker or that you set the over/under at 3.5 for an average of .250. Yikes. I guess I'll also take the over, but only because I like being an optimist. But I'm not going with Wilson. Ichiro, Figgins, Gutierrez and Smoak are the 4 that go over.
3. Number of Mariners pitchers who will throw 150 innings. Over/Under is 3.5
The Cuz: I'll take the over. Felix, Fister, and Vargas made it last year and with the addition of Pineda (who looks like a young, short-arm-throwing CC Sabathia) and perhaps a healthy Bedard makes this pretty doable. Yep, I'm going optimistic and making this prediction- Bedard will throw more innings this year than Brandon League.
Me: Pineda as a young CC? I'll send the clubhouse 10 bucks so they can buy a padlock for the fridge. I'd say Pineda is pushing it. He'll be on a serious pitch count/innings count this season. If Bedard pitches 300 IP this season he would have an average of 100 IP over the last 3 seasons. Regardless, I agree with you again. I think 4 of the 5 find a way to hit the milestone.
4. Number of Mariners pitchers with 10 wins. Over/Under is 2.5
The Cuz: I'll take the over. Felix had 13 last year on his way to a Cy Young, and 2 others had 9 (who cares if one of them was League, wins are wins right?) so this seems plausible if we can string together some offense this year.
Me: I'm going under. We had one guy last year with more than 9 wins and he won the Cy Young award. That seems insane to me. With the giant pile of arms that will be alternating in our bullpen, I don't think anyone sees enough consistent playing time to get 10 out of the bullpen, Pineda is on a strict innings watch and Bedard is Bedard and I doubt he'll get his 10 wins before his final game on May 1. That leaves the top three in the rotation, and that sounds like an under to me.
Where will the M's finish this year in the AL West? Up/Down would have this one at 3.5.
The Cuz: This is about where my optimism comes to a screeching halt, and I'm going to have to place them at the bottom of the heap of what might be one of the toughest divisions in baseball right now. The A's have arms for days and some pretty good, young players to go with it. Pundits put these guys as the dark horse of the division, but I think they'll need more pop and experience before we crown them division champs. I'll put them at 3rd, but wouldn't be surprised to see them battle for a while. The Angels just don't play bad baseball, period. Pencil them in at 2nd or 3rd in the West and wait til their signings next year to see how bad they want another shot at the World Series.
Texas, on the other hand, looks ready to kill it now. They are the definition of mashers and bangers. After tossing Smoak (their best infield prospect last year) for Cliff Lee, they replaced him with a guy who looks like he'll hit 40 dingers this year in Mitch Moreland. They strengthened their defense and lost no offense with the Beltre signing. I know, I know- Beltre long-term deal = blah performance, but hear me out on this one. After re-asserting his ability to sock the ball last year in Boston, he gets to play in a band-box of a park. And, it'll be warm down there from the get go, so don't expect too much moss on that rock at third. If their pitching holds up at all then I have place them at the top of the division again.
That leaves the M's. Pitching appears to be alright, even promising. But, hitting for power looks to be the weak spot again. That will cost us dearly against teams like Texas who can put up runs in hurry. And do we have a catcher? Can we draft a Molina of our own? Younger brother, cousin, sister? Seriously, we need a stick back there that we haven't had since we traded away Veritek for Heathcliff Slocum. Yep, it still stings doesn't it? Overall, I think we're a year and 2 big bats away from having a team that will really compete.
Me: Obviously Texas is the team to beat. And while I agree with you that Oakland and The Los Angeles Angels of Orange County of California of America are both teams that could surprise, I'm taking the Up. It seems that whenever we expect the M's to be horrible, they surprise us a little bit (and, conversely, whenever we think they'll be good they trade for Horacio Ramirez). Everyone expects them to finish last because they have as much of a chance as scoring as an RA on the BYU campus. But we do have the arms, and almost everyone from last year had a career-worst season. If that offense can perform just a little better, and the pitching staff can stay roughly the same, that's a team that can climb out of the cellar. How sad is that? I'm trying to sell you on the Mariners finishing 3rd instead of 4th. Yikes. You know what, I don't care. It's baseball season. I don't care if my main rooting interest is seeing my team not finish last. At least I'm interested again. The dark days between NFL and today are over. Sports are back baby! I'm giddy! Life is good.
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Comment by Winless In Seattle
UnSportsman
20 HR this year. Over/Under is 1.5.
I agree with both of you. Cuz - Yes, Smoak is the closest to a 'sure thing' as there can be for this wager. Elliott - No one came close last year, for sure.
But...
Two additions this year, Cust and Olivo, have a decent shot at 20. Of course, this means Cust has to get about 500 AB's (which he should be able to do as he should stay healthy at DH) and Olivo probably has to get about 400 (and as the ONLY catching option, if he stays healthy he should get it).
If we are all counting on Smoak for 20, I like my chances with either Cust and/or Olivo to get there too.
I'll take the OVER.
.250 or better this year. Over/Under is 3.5
I again agree with both of you. No arguments here. Ichiro (career .331) and Figgins (career .287) are locks. That leaves us only needing two .250 hitters. On a major league roster, where everyone is basically coming off of career worsts, I'll take that any day. Even if it's the Mariners.
I'll take the OVER.
150 innings. Over/Under is 3.5
The Seattle Mariner homer in me really likes the over. And seeing you both pick it makes me like it even more.
Nonetheless...
Felix is our only lock for 150 IP's as I see it. Vargas was 'lights out' (per Jason Vargas standards) last year. Fluke? Maybe. Doug Fister started 28 games last year, had 171 IP's and LOST 14 GAMES. Does he stay on the MLB roster all season? Maybe. Erik Bedard. He's pitched 164 innings as a Mariner... since 2008. Can he duplicate that total in a single season? Maybe. Pineda is a young arm. If he's as good as the reports say, they'll be wise to not burn him out until we have some offense for him. Will they anyway? Maybe.
So out of the current starting rotation, by my count, we have 1 lock and 4 maybes...
I'll take the UNDER.
10 wins. Over/Under is 2.5
That Seattle Mariner homer that I mentioned might get the best of me here...
I won't let it.
Again, Felix is the only lock I see in this category. I can make too much of a case the other way for every single arm on the roster. Even the ones I've never heard of.
I'll take the UNDER.
AL West? Up/Down at 3.5.
This paragraph is about to happen folks. Shield your eyes. Actually, I'll use an * in each spot where you should close your eyes.
I think the Mariners have a legit shot at *2nd in this division (I knew we'd find that Seattle homer somewhere!).
I think the division shakes out Texas, Seattle, Oakland, LAA. Texas is pretty hard to talk out of the top spot, but after that it gets cloudy. Comparing Oakland and Seattle is pretty mirror image - Oakland 'may' have better overall pitching, and Seattle 'may' have better *overall hitting. I think our pitching is better than their hitting, so I gave us the nod. The Angels remind me of those new luxury car commercials, where based on historical performances or trains of thought - they should automatically be good. Don't see it.
I'll take the UP.
Writing that last note on the standings, has made it abundantly clear I may need to expand that into an article...